Ok, so there has been some interest in the new European Union voting system, especially because it will change the unanimous requirement that is currently in place. Here is how and an explanation with several scenarios.

Qualified Majority Voting(QMV) is the voting system that will go into effect with the Lisbon Treaty. It will affect every country in the European Union. It is a double majority system. That means that it requires that the majority be found by two criteria, (1) by the number of member states and (2) by the population of the member states.

(1) by number of countries: 55% or more of member states must be in support.

(2) by population of countries: This is 65% of the total EU population.

Let’s take a look at each one as it relates to the situation in the year 2009.

For (1) to be true, at least 15 of the 27 member states must be in agreement. Of course as the EU expands(or contracts, the number of countries needed could change.

The current population of the EU is 497.5 million. That means for (2) to be true, the total population of the number of countries from (1) must be roughly 323.4 million.

Time for an example. Let’s put the countries in alphabetical order, and take the first 14 countries of this list and Poland. That would give us Belgium(10.8), Bulgaria(7.6), Czech Republic(10.5), Denmark(5.5), Germany(82.0), Estonia(1.3), Ireland(4.4), Greece(11.3), Spain(45.8), France(64.4), Italy(60.1), Cyprus(0.8), Latvia(2.3), Lithuania(3.3), and Poland(38.1). Criteria 1 is met because you have at least 55% of countries(15/27). Criteria 2 is also met because the sum of their populations is more than 65% of the total EU population. In this scenario it is 70%(348.3/497.5). The issue passes.

In the next example let’s put the countries in alphabetical order again and pick out the first 15. Meaning that these first 15 countries vote in favor of an issue, and the remaining 12 vote against it. That would put Belgium(10.8), Bulgaria(7.6), Czech Republic(10.5), Denmark(5.5), Germany(82.0), Estonia(1.3), Ireland(4.4), Greece(11.3), Spain(45.8), France(64.4), Italy(60.1), Cyprus(0.8), Latvia(2.3), Lithuania(3.3), and Luxembourg(0.5) in favor of it. Because there are 27 total countries, and fifteen have voted in favor, criteria 1 is met. The sum of the population in favor is 310.7 million. That would be just over 62% of the total population(497.5 million). In this case, criteria 2 is not met, and therefore the issue does not pass.

Read on to see an important exception.

There is one big exception to the rule. It has to do with the blocking majority. In particular it is in order to prevent the largest countries from forming an alliance. It says that a blocking minority must comprise of at least 4 member states. That means 3 or fewer states cannot effectively block a decision, even if the combined population is over 35%. In the case that this does happen, effectively, criteria 2 will be considered to have been met.

Here is an example of the exception. Let’s say that the 3 most populous member states Germany(82.2 million), France(63.8 million) and the UK(61.2 million) all vote against certain legislation while the other 24 member states vote for it. Criteria 1 is met, but criteria 2 is not. In this case, the combined population in support is 59%, less than the required 65%. This is where the blocking majority rule comes into play. Because there need to be at least 4 member states in a blocking majority(and in this case there are not enough) criteria (2) is considered met, and thus the issue passes.

If you were to put the four largest EU countries to vote against an issue here is the outcome. Germany(82.0) + France(64.4) + UK(61.6) + Italy(60.1) would mean the blocking majority has met the requirement of at least 4 member states. The total blocking population would be 268.1 million, which is about 54% of the total EU population. As it stands, criteria 2 would not be met(only 46% favor it), and thus the issue would not pass.

It is yet to be seen how often this last scenario takes place.